UFC 321 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Abu Dhabi
Today's UFC 321 gives us a heavyweight rematch worthy of gold, and my UFC 321 predictions and best bets will have you all set for action. Early prelims from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, get underway at 10 a.m. ET (ESPN+), with the main card at 2 p.m. ET (pay-per-view).
The interim champion Tom Aspinall (-400 betting favorite) defends his heavyweight strap against France’s Ciryl Gane, while strawweight standouts Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern (-150 betting favorite) meet for the vacant women’s title. With high stakes across the board, we’ve pinpointed our four best bets built on styles, stats, and recent form.
🥊 UFC 321 predictions today
UFC picks based on the latest odds from our best UFC betting sites.
- Tom Aspinall by submission vs. Ciryl Gane (+275 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Virna Jandiroba by decision vs. Mackenzie Dern (+270 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Umar Nurmagomedov by decision vs. Mario Bautista (-167 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Alexander Volkov by KO, TKO, or DQ vs. Jailton Almeida (+300 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🔮 UFC 321 expert picks
- UFC 321 predictions
- UFC 321 parlay picks
- Jandiroba vs. Dern prediction
- Aspinall vs. Gane prediction
- UFC 321 odds
💰 UFC 321 best bets
🏆 Tom Aspinall by submission vs. Ciryl Gane (+275) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane best bet:
Aspinall’s speed, precision, and black-belt grappling make this a stylistic nightmare for Gane. The Frenchman’s past losses to Francis Ngannou (4/5 takedowns conceded) and Jon Jones (first-round submission loss via guillotine) exposed his ground gaps. Aspinall averages over 8 significant strikes landed per minute (67% accuracy) and smoothly chains entries from his boxing. One clean level change could end with a rear-naked choke or arm-triangle.
This +275 odds carry an 26.67% implied win probability, and a winning $10 bet returns $27.50 profit if he closes the show on the mat.
🥊 Virna Jandiroba by decision vs. Mackenzie Dern (+270) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern best bet:
This rematch hinges on control. Jandiroba lands 2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes (35% accuracy) and defends at 71%, giving her the wrestling edge over Dern’s 0.89 takedown rate (18%). Expect Virna’s positional BJJ with half-guard pins and shoulder pressure to bank rounds rather than chase a risky submission. Dern’s striking defense (44%) means Jandiroba can score early, then grind the rest.
Her +270 odds carry a 27.03% implied win probability that she can clinch the title via steady control, and a winning , with a winning $10 wager profiting $27.
🥊 Umar Nurmagomedov by decision vs. Mario Bautista (−167) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista best bet:
From the opening bell, expect Umar to dictate every layer of this bout. He works behind disciplined kicks and straight punches, then drops levels when opponents overcommit. Once he grips the hips, the takedown chain begins using singles, trips, and body locks until control is his. Mario Bautista is durable, but Umar’s top-ride and positional patience stack minutes of dominance without risk.
At −167 (62.5% implied win probability) a winning $10 bet would profit $6.
🥊 Alexander Volkov by KO vs. Jailton Almeida (+300) ⭐⭐⭐
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida best bet:
Volkov’s length and timing can flip this fight instantly. Jailton Almeida is a takedown machine, but he defends strikes at just 41%, which is a dangerous flaw against Volkov’s kickboxing. If Almeida’s initial shots fail, he'll walk into knees and uppercuts from the 6’7″ Russian. Volkov has ended half his wins by KO and won’t miss his moment in the pocket.
His +300 odds have an implied win probability of 25%, turning a $10 bet into a $30 profit if he scores the stoppage.
📺 How to watch UFC 321
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 25
- Start time: 10 a.m. ET (prelims), 2 p.m. ET (main card)
- Location: Etihad Arena (Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates)
- TV: ESPN+/Disney+/FX (prelims); pay-per-view (main card)
📅 UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane fight card
- Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane - Heavyweight Title Fight
- Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern - Women's Strawweight Title Fight
- Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista - Bantamweight
- Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida - Heavyweight
- Aleksander Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov - Light heavyweight
👀 UFC 321 betting report
Here is how the betting action is coming in on UFC 321 at BetMGM:
| Fighters | Opening odds | Current odds | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | -425 | -425 | 32% | 48% |
| Ciryl Gane | +310 | +310 | 68% | 52% |
| Virna Jandiroba | +110 | +125 | 72% | 44% |
| Mackenzie Dern | -135 | -150 | 28% | 56% |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | -425 | -700 | 20% | 86% |
| Mario Bautista | +310 | +475 | 80% | 14% |
| Alexander Volkov | +140 | +150 | 83% | 54% |
| Jailton Almeida | -170 | -185 | 17% | 46% |
| Aleksander Rakic | +100 | -115 | 49% | 55% |
| Azamat Murzakanov | -120 | -105 | 51% | 45% |
| Nasrat Haqparast | -115 | +100 | 56% | 61% |
| Quillan Salkilld | -120 | -120 | 44% | 39% |
| Mateusz Rebecki | +125 | +110 | 55% | 71% |
| Ludovit Klein | -150 | -135 | 45% | 29% |
| Ikram Aliskerov | -275 | -210 | 32% | 43% |
| Jun Yong Park | +220 | +170 | 68% | 57% |
| Valter Walker | -325 | -400 | 32% | 15% |
| Louie Sutherland | +250 | +310 | 68% | 85% |
| Jose Miguel Delgado | -145 | -155 | 54% | 68% |
| Nathaniel Wood | +120 | +125 | 46% | 32% |
| Chris Barnett | +315 | +400 | 95% | 84% |
| Hamdy Abdelwahab | -425 | -550 | 5% | 16% |
| Azat Maksum | -350 | -550 | 16% | 81% |
| Mitch Raposo | +275 | +400 | 84% | 19% |
| Jaqueline Amorim | -450 | -450 | 22% | 57% |
| Mizuki Inoue | +350 | +340 | 78% | 43% |
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