NFL Week 1 Takeaways: Betting & Fantasy Insights From Every Game
With the first week of NFL action wrapping up tonight, we're offering our NFL Week 1 takeaways with betting and fantasy insights from every game.
I watched every single game from Week 1 (to varying degrees) and jotted down the most interesting notes related to betting strategy and fantasy football advice - which also informed my early NFL picks for Week 2.
Here were my biggest takeaways from every game in Week 1, along with how I'd attack the NFL odds or fantasy football market accordingly this week:
🦬 Bills 41, Ravens 40
💰 Betting takeaways
There are so many ways to dissect this game from both sides, so let's just state the obvious: these are the two best teams in the NFL, which is reflected in the latest Super Bowl odds after their Sunday Night Football classic.
Still, it's hard not to feel like the better team lost, right? The Ravens scored 40 points and ran for 235 yards - no team had ever done that and lost in 277 tries - while averaging 8.7 yards per play with 12 explosives. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry were lethally efficient, and the defense (while abysmal on the final drive) held up early before falling victim to some terrible luck late.
Josh Allen deserves his flowers and leads the latest NFL MVP odds for a reason - and, critically, the Bills have the inside track for the AFC's top seed. But when these teams inevitably meet again this January, I would still feel more confident with a Baltimore ticket in hand.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
When the league's two most explosive offenses combine for 81 points, there are too many heroes to count. But Derrick Henry (18 carries, 189 yards, 2 TDs) was the clear headliner of this Sunday Night Football thriller. If you got him in the second or third round, you just might have the steal of the draft.
Keon Coleman (8 catches, 112 yards, TD) would have been a standout even without securing that pivotal touchdown grab late. He led the team in targets (11), snaps (75), and routes run (50) while setting a career high in receptions. Allen did spread the rock with five guys seeing four-plus targets, but Coleman is the receiver to own from this Bills offense.
🧀 Packers 27, Lions 13
💰 Betting takeaways
All eyes were on Micah Parsons and his impact as a pass-rusher (he did record a sack late with the game already in hand). I was more focused on the Packers' offense, which looks to be in midseason form. Jordan Love found nine receivers by halftime before Matt LaFleur salted the game away behind Josh Jacobs, who has scored in an incredible nine straight for Green Bay.
To me, this game said even more about the Lions, who looked like a toothless version of the team we've come to expect under departed coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Detroit's offense had their lowest explosive play rate since 2021 (before Johnson arrived as OC), and its defense finished without a sack or takeaway and just two QB hits.
These teams entered Week 1 with virtually identical odds to win the Super Bowl and the NFC North - I'd be surprised if that happens again all season. It's clear these sides aren't on the same level right now, and the final score doesn't tell the story of just how dominant this win was for the Packers.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
Green Bay's receiver room has always been a frustrating riddle since Love took over as the starter, and the picture remains muddy after Week 1. No receiver finished with more than five targets, but Romeo Doubs (2 catches, 68 yards) led the group in snaps and routes run while connecting on Love's best pass of the day.
It's too early to panic about Jahmyr Gibbs (9 carries, 19 yards), who finished with fewer carries and yards than backfield mate David Montgomery (11 carries, 25 yards). Neither saw many opportunities in a lopsided affair, but Gibbs finished with a whopping 10 catches (31 yards) and had 44 snaps to Montgomery's 25 snaps. This could be a decent buy-low on Gibbs.
⛏️ 49ers 17, Seahawks 13
💰 Betting takeaways
The 49ers dominated this game on paper, and Sam Darnold's stat line (150 yards, 0 TDs) will put a scare into Seahawks fans. But I came away from this game more encouraged about Seattle than the box score would suggest.
Mike Macdonald's defense made life difficult for Brock Purdy (277 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) and Christtian McCaffrey (22 carries, 69 yards), but two brutal fumbles cost the 'Hawks a chance to upset their division rivals. The last was particularly rough with Darnold simply losing his grip on the ball after he had dotted up the 49ers' secondary to reach the 9-yard line within the final minute.
San Francisco controlled possession in this game but was fortunate to score its final touchdown on a throw that should have been intercepted. I get the respect for the 49ers with the star power on paper, but it feels like age is catching up to this group - I wouldn't be thinking Super Bowl just yet.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
The storyline that will grab most fantasy football headlines is Zach Charbonnet (12 carries, 47 yards, TD) outpacing starter Kenneth Walker (10 carries, 20 yards) in just about every way, including total snaps (30-21) and goal-line snaps (3-0). It's not a great sign for Walker, though he did earn a larger snap share on early downs and remains the more explosive back of the two - especially as he gets healthier in the coming weeks.
The bigger story to me is the massive target share for Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (9 catches, 124 yards), who saw 13 of Darnold's 23 attempts thrown his way despite running just 23 routes. That is ridiculous route efficiency for the third-year pro, and I'd be buying all of the JSN stock I could find available even in a "buy-high" spot.
Speaking of buy-high, the hype around 49ers receiver Ricky Pearsall (4 catches, 108 yards) feels plenty warranted one week into the season after leading all receivers in snaps (64), routes (35), and targets (7). He picked up nearly half his production on a nasty double-move late to set up the game-winning score. He should be a trusted weekly starter moving forward.
🐎 Broncos 20, Titans 12
💰 Betting takeaways
This doesn't exactly feel like an impressive win for the Broncos after a preseason full of hype. Bo Nix (176 yards, TD, 2 INTs) had a rough first half and the running game didn't offer much support, while last year's worst team in the NFL hung around despite shooting itself in the foot with penalties.
But the offense eventually did find its footing - it is Week 1, after all - and this Denver defense is as good as advertised: it finished with six sacks and seven first downs allowed, and it boasted as many takeaways (2) as third downs allowed (2). This unit needs to prove it can stop the run against elite teams, but this is a double-digit win team as currently constructed.
Within that context, I thought Cam Ward (112 yards, 0 TDs) showed some flashes in a really difficult test for the rookie. His arm is clearly live enough to survive on a weekly basis - but in a more controlled way than, say, Will Levis - but he'll need to get rid of the ball earlier to avoid drive-killing sacks.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
If you're looking for the true RB1 in Denver, J.K. Dobbins (16 carries, 63 yards, TD) appears to be the clear choice after securing a team-high 40 snaps - including the final touchdown to put the game away. Yet RJ Harvey (6 carries, 70 yards) had the best run of the day, and Tyler Badie (0 carries) took most of the snaps in passing situations. I'd start Dobbins for now, but Harvey clearly isn't "RB4" like some feared and is the back I'd want 10 weeks from now.
The plan is clear for Tennessee: it's Tony Pollard (18 carries, 60 yards) and essentially nobody else. The seventh-year back played 89.5% of his team's snaps with Tyjae Spears out and gobbled up virtually every carry - his lone 29-yard catch led the team, too. He'll look better against other defenses than he did today, and if the volume remains, he could be a sneaky asset ahead.
🐏 Rams 14, Texans 9
💰 Betting takeaways
A win is a win for the Rams, who took this one in the same fashion that they'll look to win every game this year: put the ball in Matthew Stafford's hands, trust Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams in key spots, and keep the defense honest along the way. The Texans' defense couldn't do much to stop it, which isn't a great sign for the AFC South favorites moving forward.
What should give Houston bettors much more concern, though, was the horrendous play of the offensive line. Four of the Texans' five starters up front surrendered at least three pressures, and C.J. Stroud spent much of the game running for his life. With Joe Mixon's health uncertain, this offense lacks an identity or the time to create plays out of structure.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
What did you expect from the Rams' offense? Kyren Williams (18 carries, 66 yards, TD) dominated the share of carries with nobody else seeing more than one, though Blake Corum (1 carry, 2 yards) did siphon off 10 snaps in mostly passing situations. Meanwhile, Puka Nacua (10 catches, 130 yards) saw the ball on half of his 22 routes - he remains a legitimate star at WR.
With Mixon out, Nick Chubb (13 carries, 60 yards) shrugged off any competition from Dare Ogunbowale (2 carries, 9 yards) or Dameon Pierce (3 carries, 5 yards) but couldn't break off a run longer than 13 yards. The Texans clearly don't share the fantasy community's affinity for Woody Marks (3 carries, 3 yards), who saw seven snaps and didn't do much with them.
🏗️ Steelers 34, Jets 32
💰 Betting takeaways
Give the Steelers credit where it's due: offensive coordinator Arthur Smith dialed up a strong game plan for Aaron Rodgers in his debut, utilizing play-action rollouts to get Rodgers into space to find easy angles for six. That helped mask a lethargic run game and shaky secondary that nearly costed Pittsburgh the game before Chris Boswell's 60-yard field goal saved the day.
Conversely, the Jets' defense probably isn't as bad as it looked on Sunday, especially with Sauce Gardner essentially shutting down DK Metcalf when guarding the Steelers star - that's a good sign after his inconsistent play last year. On the other side, Justin Fields (218 yards, TD) played like a guy who just signed the first big contract of his career: confident, aggressive, and dynamic with 12 rushes for 48 yards and two scores to boot.
The Steelers ultimately won this game thanks largely to special teams, and I'm lightly compelled by their long-shot title odds around 50/1. But I'm not sure I understand why the Jets are comparatively 300/1 to win it all and virtual afterthoughts to make the playoffs. I wouldn't write them off just yet.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
It wasn't all good news for Breece Hall (19 carries, 107 yards), who had two rushing touchdowns vultured by Fields and another by backup Braelon Allen (6 carries, 9 yards, TD). But he played 37 snaps to Allen's 20 and made them count with a string of explosive runs that more closely resemble the RB1 form we saw from Hall when fully healthy.
DK Metcalf (4 catches, 83 yards) should be just fine in his first year with a new QB in Pittsburgh. The same is true of Garrett Wilson (7 catches, 95 yards, TD), who already looks to have rekindled his connection with Fields from when they played together at Ohio State. Both wideouts are the clear top dogs on offense and shouldn't have trouble finding opportunity.
⛵️ Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20
💰 Betting takeaways
Both of these teams have a lot to clean up after Week 1 - if only in the kicking department alone. The Buccaneers survived this one despite some obvious lapses by Baker Mayfield (167 yards, 3 TDs) intermixed with brilliant throws downfield. Given the coordinator change in the offseason, I'll have my eyes on Tampa Bay's passing attack next week to see if this keeps trending south.
The Falcons easily could have won this game, and that would have been a fitting reward for the way that Michael Penix (298 yards, TD) played in his first game as the unquestioned QB1. The Falcons' run game was oddly non-existent and the pass rush couldn't get to Mayfield enough, but this still feels more promising than what Atlanta showed last year ... even in a loss.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
Let's not lose sight of the fact that Bijan Robinson (12 carries, 24 yards) is still, in fact, that dude after he took a swing pass 50 yards for a touchdown on his second touch of the season. Ignore the rushing yards, folks; he'll be one of the best fantasy players in the league by season's end.
I was prepared to spotlight Emeka Egbuka (4 catches, 67 yards, 2 TDs) even before his 25-yard game-winning touchdown in the final minute. He's clearly earned Baker Mayfield's trust as a top option in this offense, and he even led the team in snaps (54 of 58) and routes run (36). He could make a run at Mike Evans for this team's WR1 role as early as this season.
🐯 Bengals 17, Browns 16
💰 Betting takeaways
After this many years of the Bengals starting slow, can we really knock them down a peg for doing the same thing in 2025? This is essentially priced into the experience for Cincinnati, which actually showed positive signs on defense in Al Golden's debut - a much more interesting development to me than another predictably slow start for Joe Burrow (113 yards, TD) and the passing offense against a pesky Browns defense.
Cleveland should have won this game if not for multiple kicking mishaps late. Joe Flacco (290 yards, TD, 2 INTs) showed why he won the job in camp, though he had virtually no help from the run game or the aforementioned kicking unit. I'll be fading the Browns next week in a tough spot against Baltimore, but this feels like a team to back as an underdog this year.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
There weren't many positive developments for a Bengals offense that usually lifts fantasy teams instead of sinking them. But those who drafted Chase Brown (21 carries, 43 yards, TD) can rest assured that he's the locked in RB1 in Cincinnati - tripling the snap share for Samaje Perine, the only other running back to earn a snap for the Bengals. Brown saw all 21 running back carries.
Dylan Sampson (12 carries, 29 yards) was perhaps a surprising choice to lead the Browns in touches and total yards after adding eight catches for 64 yards - the most catches by a back in their debut since 1990. He wasn't terribly efficient but still outperformed Jerome Ford (6 carries, 8 yards), though both could lose opportunities when Quinshod Judkins is integrated into this offense.
🌵 Cardinals 20, Saints 13
💰 Betting takeaways
I didn't expect to learn much about the Cardinals in this game, and I think it's fair to stick to your priors after a 7-point win as a 6.5-point favorite - one that could have easily gone the other way or even been a blowout if not for a questionable call on a Will Johnson defensive touchdown. I did see enough to back this team next week against an even worse Carolina team.
New Orleans drew a lot of criticism in the offseason as the NFL's worst team, but it didn't exactly look that way in Week 1. Alvin Kamara (11 catches, 45 yards, TD) continues to prove himself as a solid lead back in Year 9, and Spencer Rattler (214 yards, 0 TDs) held his own in his season debut.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
If you targeted Cardinals running back Trey Benson (8 carries, 69 yards) as a late-round sleeper, you were doing victory laps when he broke free for a 52-yard gain early in the second half of a close game. James Conner (12 carries, 39 yards) is still the RB1, but Benson saw more passing-down work and would be a top handcuff option should Conner miss time.
It's always a smart idea to target tight ends for young QBs, and that seems to be a winning formula once again for Juwan Johnson (8 catches, 76 yards), who benefitted from Rattler attempting 46 passes overall. If Kellen Moore's offense is going to have this much volume up for grabs, Johnson could be a worthwhile option for those fading top tight ends.
🏴☠️ Raiders 20, Patriots 13
💰 Betting takeaways
The Raiders have a clear identity under Pete Carroll - even if it wasn't a perfect debut for every component. Geno Smith (362 yards, TD, INT) looked ready to go for Las Vegas and remains one of the more underrated passers and game-managers in football. It helps to have Brock Bowers (5 catches, 103 yards), though he left the game late with an injury - he should be OK moving forward.
The Patriots had chances but largely fought themselves questionable calls in key spots and virtually no balance offensively. Drake Maye (287 yards, TD, INT) is someone I'm bullish on long-term, but I'm not sure he has the pieces around him to lead a relevant offense in 2025. Mike Vrabel has a track record as a good coach, but this was a shaky debut with New England.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
All eyes were on Ashton Jeanty (19 carries, 38 yards, TD) in his NFL debut, and the box score was uninspiring. There's no reason to panic yet for the rookie - he saw a whopping 54 of his team's 63 snaps, and he routinely created yards where none existed. He's a quintessential buy-low candidate right now behind his sky-high usage and strong profile entering the season.
I wouldn't necessarily be targeting any Patriots for my fantasy team outside of deeper leagues, though Kayshon Boutte (6 catches, 103 yards) broke out with his first 100-yard game. Rookie rusher TreVeyon Henderson (5 carries, 27 yards) saw fewer snaps than starter Rhamondre Stevenson (7 carries, 15 yards) but was the more efficient and explosive of the two.
🎖️ Commanders 21, Giants 6
💰 Betting takeaways
The Commanders were locked in a dogfight with the Giants for much of Sunday afternoon before pulling away late on a Deebo Samuel rushing touchdown. It wasn't the most explosive performance from Jayden Daniels and Co., but that's to be expected against an underrated Giants front that sacked Daniels three times and held Washington to 4-for-11 on third down.
New York couldn't capitalize on a strong defensive effort because Russell Wilson (168 yards, 0 TDs) completed fewer than half his passes, though he wasn't the only problem alongside a non-existent run game. I wouldn't bet the Giants in any futures markets, but I do think this team will find ways to stick around in close games regardless of who's under center.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
The legend of Jacory Croskey-Merritt (10 carries, 82 yards, TD) grows after he led the Commanders backfield in every major stat besides snaps - though he was the primary back from the second quarter on and looks like the best option moving forward. If he's someone available on the waiver wire, treat him like a premium add; if you have him on your team, this is your time to shine.
I'm not all that interested in Tyrone Tracy (10 carries, 24 yards), who appears to have the inside track after playing nearly 75% of the snaps. But I'm even less interested now in Cam Skattebo (2 carries, -3 yards) - a trendy preseason pick to earn carries in this offense after a productive career at Arizona State. I wouldn't waste the roster spot for now.
🐆 Jaguars 26, Panthers 10
💰 Betting takeaways
The Panthers have been the worst team in football since drafting Bryce Young in 2023, and they don't look much better to start this season. The former No. 1 pick struggled yet again, completing just over 50% of his passes for 154 yards, a touchdown, and two picks. If he doesn't show improvement early in the year, Carolina will be an easy fade until he loses the job.
It's hard to make too much of this win for the Jaguars, who still face a lot of questions after a disastrous 4-13 campaign. I'm inclined to believe in Trevor Lawrence (178 yards, TD, INT) and this offense finally finding some life, especially with an explosive showing Sunday, but we'll learn more next week in Cincinnati.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
It only took one week for Travis Etienne (16 carries, 143 yards) to silence the debates about the top dog in this Jacksonville backfield. The former Clemson star played 40 snaps - nearly twice that of his teammates' combined total - and showed his game-breaking speed all day, including on a 71-yard run to break the game open early.
While fading Carolina's offense completely is fair and advisable, rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan (5 catches, 68 yards) showed why the Panthers spent a top-10 pick on the Arizona star in April. He led the team with eight targets and will be a target hog all season long - even if the QB play stunts his upside.
🐴 Colts 33, Dolphins 8
💰 Betting takeaways
After having their toughness questioned by national media entering Week 1, the Dolphins completely rolled over in this one. Tua Tagovailoa does not look like a quarterback with any confidence, and the defense showed absolutely zero resistance against a Daniel Jones-led offense that scored on every drive - something that hadn't been done by any team since 1977.
Personally, I'm not buying this as a statement by the Colts. This has everything to do with Miami, which feels more likely to earn the No. 1 pick than secure a playoff spot in the loaded AFC. Mike McDaniel didn't seem to have any answers after the game, so I'll continue to fade his team until he finds some.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
As mentioned above, it's hard for me to buy too much into anything the Colts did given the competition. So let's clear up any concerns about a timeshare between Jonathan Taylor (18 carries, 71 yards) and rookie rusher DJ Giddens (12 carries, 41 yards) - Taylor saw every snap until the game was out of hand.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway, if there are any in a game like this, was the way Tyler Warren (7 catches, 76 yards) made an impact right out of the gate. Rookie tight ends can be tough to trust, but the Colts have been high on Warren this summer, and the first-round pick could be ready to assume a larger role right away - he's worth watching as a streamer or low-end flier.
⚡️ Chargers 27, Chiefs 21
💰 Betting takeaways
The Chargers threw it early and often against a Chiefs defense that excels against the run, which proved to be a winning strategy for Justin Herbert (318 yards, 3 TDs) and his suddenly dynamic receiving corps. Three players finished with at least five catches and 65 yards, and two of them - Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen - scored in the second half to seal the win.
I wasn't nearly as impressed by Kansas City, which once again seems to have a lethargy to its approach that feels detrimental if it doesn't clear by the postseason. Patrick Mahomes (258 yards, TD) was sharper than his stat line suggests, but this feels like a worse version of the Chiefs' dynastic ideal.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
You could hear the air come out of the hype balloon after Omarion Hampton (15 carries, 48 yards) averaged a mere 3.2 yards per carry in his NFL debut. But it wasn't all bad for the highly touted rookie rusher - he played 36 more snaps than Najee Harris (1 carry, 5 yards) and forced three missed tackles, though his vision was suspect at times and could threaten his hold on the RB1 role.
Xavier Worthy left Friday's loss with a dislocated shoulder, and Hollywood Brown (10 catches, 99 yards) emerged as Mahomes' go-to receiver in his place. He and JuJu Smith Schuster (5 catches, 55 yards) were the only Chiefs with more than two catches, and both are worth monitoring if Worthy is out for an extended period.
🦅 Eagles 24, Cowboys 20
💰 Betting takeaways
I know the Eagles won by just four points as 6.5-point favorites, but I came away from this game impressed with Philly's resilience after a game that was interrupted shortly after halftime by a lengthy lightning delay.
Jalen Hurts (152 yards, 0 TDs) was surgical in this game, completing 19 of his 23 passes with patience against a Cowboys defense that played zone on 100% of his dropbacks. Even with eyes on him, he took advantage of Dallas' poor pass-rush discipline with 14 carries for 62 yards and two touchdowns - a dangerous sight with Saquon Barkley (18 carries, 60 yards, TD) alongside him.
Dak Prescott (188 yards, 0 TDs) had positive moments in this game and avoided any sacks, aided by the early ejection of Eagles star defensive tackle Jalen Carter. The Cowboys ran the ball much more effectively with him out, but it won't be so easy next week in a trap spot against New York.
🏆 Fantasy takeaways
If you're starting to regret that early draft pick on DeVonta Smith (3 catches, 16 yards) or A.J. Brown (1 catch, 8 yards), don't fret just yet - the Cowboys played ultra-conservative to take away the Eagles' prolific passing threats, which freed up Hurts (and Barkley) to carve them up inside. Those two star wideouts will have plenty of chances to swing matchups the rest of the way.
It's good to see Javonte Williams (15 carries, 54 yards, 2 TDs) resembling his former self after injuries sapped his effectiveness in Denver. The Cowboys clearly trust him as their RB1 over Miles Sanders (4 carries, 53 yards) - who fumbled on Thursday - though I wouldn't expect Williams to reach the end zone every week, let alone twice.
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