Ravens vs. Dolphins Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football: TNF Best Bets Tonight

Thursday Night Football brings a compelling NFL Week 9 matchup as the Baltimore Ravens (2-5) visit the Miami Dolphins (2-6) at Hard Rock Stadium, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Our Ravens vs. Dolphins expert picks center on Lamar Jackson's highly anticipated return from injury, creating numerous betting opportunities across spreads, totals, and player props. Baltimore enters as a 7.5-point betting favorite by the latest NFL odds, while the Over/Under sits around 51.5 depending on the sportsbook.

📊 Ravens vs. Dolphins betting lines

The Ravens desperately need momentum after a promising 30-16 victory over Chicago in their last outing, while the Dolphins are coming off a dominant 34-10 win against Atlanta. Baltimore's status as road favorites reflects both Jackson's return and Miami's defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against the run where the Dolphins rank 28th in the NFL, allowing 145 rushing yards per game.

As Gary Pearson notes in his Ravens vs. Dolphins prediction, the Ravens are almost completely healthy with only offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley listed as limited. The mood in Baltimore's locker room should be excellent, creating a situation ripe for the visitors to excel offensively.

Key matchup factors

The Ravens face Miami's fourth-worst defensive unit in terms of DVOA and EPA per play, while Baltimore's own defense ranks 30th in EPA per play. This sets up what multiple experts expect to be a high-scoring affair, with both teams ranking among the most profitable Over bets this season - Miami at 6-1-1 and Baltimore at 6-1.

Weather conditions will be ideal in Miami Gardens, with 73-degree temperatures at kickoff, no precipitation expected, and only moderate 15-mph wind gusts that shouldn't significantly impact play.

🔍 TNF spread & total analysis

Ravens -7.5

Multiple experts favor Baltimore to cover the spread, citing Jackson's return and Miami's defensive struggles. The Ravens' defense has shown improvement recently, limiting the Rams to 17 points before their bye and holding Chicago to 16 points last week.

As Brenden Schaeffer notes in his Ravens vs. Dolphins same-game parlay, Miami's blowout win over Atlanta was more a product of the Falcons' inconsistency with backup quarterback Kirk Cousins than a sign of Dolphins' dominance.

Over 51.5

The total represents one of the strongest consensus plays among our experts' NFL picks. Hard Rock Stadium has seen three Overs in as many home games this season, averaging 55 points. Both teams possess the offensive firepower to contribute to a shootout, particularly with Jackson's return opening up Baltimore's full offensive arsenal.

The Ravens will face Miami's fourth-worst pass defense, while the Dolphins should find success against Baltimore's inconsistent defense. Perfect weather conditions eliminate any concerns about environmental factors limiting offensive production.

💡 TNF player prop betting strategies

Passing props: Lamar Jackson the focal point

Jackson's return creates the most compelling player prop opportunities for Thursday Night Football. Dustin Saracini emphasizes Jackson's rushing potential in his Ravens vs. Dolphins player props, targeting Over 35.5 rushing yards at -110 odds via BetMGM.

The logic is compelling: before his injury, Jackson ran for at least 35 yards in three of four starts, with the lone miss coming against Cleveland's elite run defense. Miami's 28th-ranked run defense allowed Justin Fields 81 yards on just seven carries in Week 4, highlighting their vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks.

Additional Jackson props worth considering include:

- Over 230.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM): Miami's pass defense, while improved, hasn't faced an offense of Baltimore's caliber recently

- Anytime touchdown (+175 at bet365): The Dolphins have allowed four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season

As Saracini notes in his breakdown of the best Lamar Jackson player props, these numbers represent significant value given Jackson's historical performance and Miami's defensive weaknesses.

Rushing props: Back Henry, Achane

Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rushing yards (-113 at DraftKings) presents value despite previous disappointments this season. With Jackson's return, the quarterback option becomes a threat again, potentially keeping Miami's front seven off-balance and creating running lanes for Henry.

De'Von Achane Over 56.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel) offers strong value, as Achane has exceeded this total in five of his last six games. Baltimore's run defense has consistently struggled, allowing 128.9 yards per game on the ground.

Receiving props: Mark Andrews revival

Mark Andrews represents a key beneficiary of Jackson's return. The tight end going Over 27.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel) capitalizes on Miami's weakness against tight ends, who average 63.62 yards per game against the Dolphins - only six defenses allow more. Andrews hit the Over in Jackson's last complete game, accumulating 91 yards against Detroit.

💪 TNF touchdown scorer markets

First touchdown predictions

Sean Tomlinson provides compelling Ravens vs. Dolphins first TD picks, highlighting three key targets:

• Lamar Jackson (+1100 at bet365): The league's all-time leader in quarterback rushing yards faces the NFL's worst defense against quarterback rushing touchdowns (four allowed). Jackson's dual-threat ability makes him an appealing long-shot play.
• Jaylen Waddle (+1000 at bet365): Since Tyreek Hill's injury, Waddle has emerged as Miami's primary receiving threat, averaging 79.8 yards on 6.8 targets per game. He's caught six of eight red-zone targets for 64 yards, ranking fourth league-wide in red-zone receiving yards.
• Jaylen Waddle (+1000 at bet365): Since Tyreek Hill's injury, Waddle has emerged as Miami's primary receiving threat, averaging 79.8 yards on 6.8 targets per game. He's caught six of eight red-zone targets for 64 yards, ranking fourth league-wide in red-zone receiving yards.

Anytime touchdown predictions

Esten McLaren identifies strong value in his Ravens vs. Dolphins anytime TD picks:

• Zay Flowers (+120 at DraftKings): Baltimore's clear No. 1 receiver hasn't scored since Week 1 but should benefit significantly from Jackson's return
• Jaylen Waddle (+145 at FanDuel): Four touchdowns this season with consistent target volume
• Lamar Jackson (+155 at DraftKings): Premium value given Miami's quarterback rushing touchdown vulnerability

💰 More TNF betting strategies

Ravens vs. Dolphins same-game parlay (SGP)

The optimal same-game parlay combines Baltimore's expected dominance with individual player performances. The recommended three-leg parlay includes:

1. Ravens -7.5 (-112)
2. Derrick Henry Over 18.5 rushing attempts (+101)
3. Mark Andrews Over 2.5 receptions (-145)

This combination, available at +445 odds via DraftKings, capitalizes on expected game script while targeting players likely to see increased usage with Jackson's return.

Risk management & bankroll considerations

Given the volatility of Thursday Night Football and Jackson's return from injury, experts recommend moderate unit sizes on individual props while potentially increasing exposure on the game total, which represents the strongest consensus play.

The combination of perfect weather conditions, two weak defenses, and Jackson's return creates an environment conducive to offensive production, making Over bets particularly attractive despite the elevated total.