NFL First Coach Fired Odds & Prediction: Mike McDaniel, Brian Daboll on Hot Seats

The opening week of the 2025 NFL season is in the books, and the latest first coach to be fired odds tell the story of one team’s surprising struggles.

While nobody expected the Miami Dolphins to be world beaters, surely they didn’t anticipate the AFC East contenders being crushed by the Daniel Jones-led Indianapolis Colts. The 33-8 defeat has cemented Mike McDaniel as the clear first coach to be fired odds favorite after Week 1.

Where do coaches like Brian Daboll and Dave Canales land? I break down the latest odds and make my NFL picks for the first coach to be canned this campaign.

📊 NFL first coach fired odds

NFL odds as of Monday, Sept. 8.

🐬 Will McDaniel be first coach fired?

McDaniel has been under the microscope for a few months now. 

Following a disappointing 8-9 season for Miami last year, many wondered if the 42-year-old’s charismatic coaching style had run its course. However, he was given the benefit of the doubt, with injuries - especially under center - cited as the root of the team’s struggles.

McDaniel’s unique personality is received well when the team is winning at the end of the day. If not, though, the critics come out in droves to call for the quirky coach's head.

That’s what happened following the team’s blowout defeat in Indianapolis. Dolphins fans witnessed deja vu, only this time, it was Tua Tagovailoa and his entire supporting cast on the field getting throttled. The team is fully healthy, after all, a term that requires an asterisk in the most physically demanding sport on the planet.

Miami’s myriad of mistakes have the seat underneath the Kyle Shanahan disciple scorching once again. A trio of tough divisional games awaits McDaniel’s men, and it has some contemplating what the Dolphins must do in the short term to save their coach’s job.

While McDaniel would be the first to tell you it’s been wonderful having defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver in the building, it could also turn out to be a curse.

The 45-year-old’s name has been thrown around in discussions regarding vacant roles in recent years. If McDaniel is shown the door in-season, Weaver is a tailor-made interim replacement. All of this makes it easy to understand why McDaniel (-200) is the odds-on favorite to be the first coach fired this campaign.

🔥 Daboll, Stefanski on hot seats

Miami was far from the only poor performer in Week 1, which is why over a quarter of the league's coaches are trading at 10/1 or shorter to be canned early on. Chief among them is New York Giants frontman Brian Daboll (+350).

Daboll, much like McDaniel, can be considered lucky to still have a head coaching role. The former Buffalo offensive coordinator is 18-33-1 during his three-plus seasons with the G-Men, with the record trending in the wrong direction every year since his debut campaign.

The Giants have among the NFL's toughest schedules, so is the writing on the wall for Daboll? Not quite. If rookie Jaxson Dart can overtake seasoned veteran Russell Wilson as the starter and show signs of development, it could be enough to see Daboll return in 2026.

All of that being said, his brash personality and losing brand of football have already seen tensions bleed over onto the sidelines this season. Much like Kevin Stefanski (+450) and Cleveland, it simply could be time for a culture change in East Rutherford, N.J.

The Browns and Giants have the joint-worst NFL win totals alongside the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans. This lands Brian Callahan (+800) near the top of this list, as well as Daboll and Stefanski.

Shane Steichen (+600) and Jonathan Gannon (+800) also appear, but Week 1 wins are believed to have bought them more time. The same cannot be said for Carolina's Dave Canales (+700), whose quarterback and team looked woefully unprepared for the Jacksonville Jaguars to start the season.

Rounding out the first coach to be fired candidates are Raheem Morris (+900) and Zac Taylor (+1000). Both coaches appear to be in over their heads in their current roles, as they cannot establish their teams as Super Bowl odds contenders, despite having among the most talented rosters in the NFL.

🔮 NFL first coach fired prediction

McDaniel seems like such an obvious choice here, but for all of the social media chatter, the Dolphins haven't been bad enough during his tenure to justify a midseason sacking. This is an incredibly volatile market to try and pinpoint, so I usually look to bad owners when making my picks.

This opens the door for Callahan, Gannon, or Stefanski, but I've ultimately landed on Canales.

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more ignorant owner in the league than David Tepper. Some of the decisions he's made since purchasing the Panthers in 2018 have been puzzling - to put it nicely. He's run through four full-time coaches in seven seasons, and it could be five by this time next year.

Carolina looked lost in a 26-10 loss to Jacksonville in Week 1. Bryce Young regressed to his rookie self, going 18-35 passing for 154 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. If so-called offensive guru Canales cannot get the former No. 1 pick back on track, his days as head coach could be numbered.

A $10 flier on Canales to be the first coach to be given his pink slip would return a $70 profit if my prediction turns out to be true.

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