NFL Expert Picks & Staff Predictions: Week 9

Get ready for the Sunday slate using our NFL expert picks and staff predictions for Week 9. We're covering five matchups as a team, featuring NFL picks on the Colts vs. Steelers, Vikings vs. Lions, Falcons vs. Patriots, Bears vs. Bengals, and Chiefs vs. Bills.

Read on for our comprehensive NFL predictions for Week 9.

🔮 NFL expert picks: Week 9

NFL picks made by Dustin Saracini, Gary Pearson, LJ Blut, and Sean Tomlinson based on the best odds for Week 6.

This weekend features a handful of fun matchups, starting with the Colts vs. Steelers and ending with Chiefs vs. Bills.

Whether you're looking for Week 9 upset picks or AI predictions, we have you covered. But first, let's cash with the SBR staff.

🆚 Expert NFL game picks

Dustin Saracini: Chiefs -1.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

I'm sorry, but Josh Allen can only do so much. His defense comes in with the worst run-stopping unit in the NFL, and while the secondary has been better, its numbers are inflated due to a schedule featuring the Panthers, Saints, Jets, and Dolphins. Don't be surprised if Patrick Mahomes and Co. blow these Bills out of the water.

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread (5-3), with Buffalo in the bottom 10 (3-4).

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Gary Pearson: Lions -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

I can’t think of a worse reintroduction into the lineup for J.J. McCarthy than a matchup against the high-octane Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Not only does Detroit have the fifth-best offensive DVOA, but it also boasts the best defensive DVOA and second-best defensive EPA per play (tied with the Rams). 

If that’s not enough, the Lions are a scintillating 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a bye. A winning $10 bet at BetMGM at -110 odds will profit $9.09.

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Sean Tomlinson: Chiefs-Bills Under 52.5 (-110 via Caesars)

Yes, the offenses involved here come with strong fireworks potential, especially with Rashee Rice back and flying high for the Kansas City Chiefs. However, this is a lofty number for a game involving two defenses among the top 10 in points allowed per game, and the Chiefs are second at only 16.4.

Each squad sits among the top two against the pass as well. The Bills’ run defense is vulnerable, but the Chiefs may not be well-positioned to take advantage with Isiah Pacheco likely out.

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LJ Blut: Colts -3 (-115 via FanDuel)

The Colts have been the story of the NFL in the first half of the season. They are tied with the Patriots for the best cover rate in the league at 6-2 (75%). The Steelers are entering the week with a cover record of 3-4 (42.9%), which is bottom 10 in the NFL. 

The Colts should have no issues running the ball against this Steelers defense, and I expect Jonathan Taylor to have a typical 2025 Jonathan Taylor game.

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🏈 Best NFL player prop bets

Saracini: De'Andre Swift Over 62.5 rushing yards (-113 via DraftKings)

Are we supposed to understand why this number is so low against a defense, that honestly, might be the worst defense these two eyes have ever seen?

The Cincinnati Bengals are giving up 151 yards per game on the ground, and couldn't stop the then-0-7 Jets from scoring 23 fourth-quarter points, which ultimately handed them their first win of the season. It's cold and bleak on the defensive side of things in Cincy, and it's not going to get any better against this Bears team. Fire him up as part of our best NFL player prop bets for Week 9.

Gary Pearson: Daniel Jones Over 241.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM)

Daniel Jones, the NFL's most clutch QB entering Week 9, hit the Over on this total in two of three road games and five of eight overall. The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, have allowed at least 250 passing yards in five of seven games. 

Mike Tomlin’s team is ranked 22nd in terms of defensive pass DVOA. A winning $10 bet at BetMGM, with its -115 odds implying a 53.49% probability, will profit $8.70.

Sean Tomlinson: Caleb Williams Over 232.5 passing yards (-112 via DraftKings)

Caleb Williams often piles up yardage while needing to win shootouts given the struggles of Chicago’s defense. That’s especially true against weak secondaries, with Williams putting up 298 yards earlier this season against the Dallas Cowboys, who sit second-last against the pass, and 285 yards last week while playing the Baltimore Ravens, who are 28th.

Now he’ll be ready for liftoff again while facing the also pass-friendly Bengals, who rank 30th at 256 yards allowed per game through the air.

Blut: Josh Jacobs anytime TD (-140 via FanDuel)

I am all over several Josh Jacobs props for Sunday afternoon's game against the Carolina Panthers. James Cook of the Buffalo Bills rushed 19 times for 216 yards against the Panthers' defense to go with two rushing touchdowns last week. I expect the Packers to pound the rock all game long.

Jacobs has been a monster inside the 10-yard line this season, as he is second in the NFL with nine rushing touchdowns. Against this Panthers defense, I expect that to continue.