Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction Today: US Open Final Odds & Best Bet
For the third of four majors this season, tennis' two pre-eminent superstars will square off in the final, and my Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction offers a best bet you'll want to tail.
Sinner and Alcaraz have won the last seven majors, and one of them is set to make it eight today at Arthur Ashe Stadium from Flushing Meadows, N.Y. (2 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Sinner, who beat Alcaraz for the first time in six meetings at the Wimbledon final, is the -125 to -135 betting favorite.
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction
Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets, and don't miss Mike Spector's Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova prediction.
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds: US Open 2025
Latest US Open odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.
| Player | Odds to win | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | -125 | 55.56% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +108 | 48.08% |
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz expert pick to win
Jannik Sinner (-125) ⭐⭐⭐
The margins between these two champions are finer than the width of a single hair.
Sinner's only defeat in his last 33 hard-court matches came in the Cincinnati Open final against Alcaraz. However, you can slap a giant asterisk beside it, as the Italian was forced to retire due to illness.
Sinner has won four of the previous seven majors, with Alcaraz winning the other three. The Italian is the defending US Open champion and has dropped two sets in six matches entering the final.
Alcaraz hasn't dropped any. If the 22-year-old beats Sinner in straight sets, he'll become the first player in the open era to win the US Open without losing a set.
A straight-sets win against Sinner, however, is about as unlikely as Arthur Ashe having no celebrities in attendance for the final.
That said, I firmly believe it's Sinner's time to begin a stretch of marginal superiority over his greatest adversary. The world No. 1 has been the better player for most of the season, and his steely focus is unrelenting. Sinner rarely commits unforced errors and has shown his unrivaled capacity to execute in the biggest moments.
While Alcaraz has as well, I'm giving the slightest edge to the Italian, who looked exceedingly confident in beating the Spaniard in the Wimbledon final. Sinner's odds range from -125 to -135 at the best sports betting sites.
Best Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prop bet
Over 39.5 games (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I bet the Over 40.5 for the Wimbledon final, and it finished at 40. I'm not making that same mistake twice, and FanDuel provides the opportunity to take palatable -128 odds for the 39.5-game total.
While BetMGM offers -120 odds for a total of 41.5 games, I'll take the two-game buffer for a slightly more expensive price.
Alcaraz had shown fleeting mental lapses in previous grand slams, which provided Sinner with a minor advantage. That hasn't been the case during the US Open, though, with Alcaraz as smooth, calm, and unerring as I've seen him.
His discernible improvement on the psychological front indicates this final has a good chance of going the distance. Sinner is as mentally strong as they come, and there's nothing to choose between their skill sets.
Four of their previous six meetings went the distance, two of which occurred on the clay of Roland-Garros, including the 2025 final. By the way, I'm excluding Sinner's retirement in Cincinnati.
Sinner showed a moment of vulnerability against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinal, requiring treatment on his abdomen. I don't see it impacting him in the final, though.
How to watch the 2025 US Open Final
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 7
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (Flushing Meadows, N.Y.)
- How to watch: ESPN
Not intended for use in MA.
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