Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 9
Two division rivals clash again as we look at our Mets vs. Phillies prediction, with each team heading in the opposite direction.
The Phillies have won four of their last five games. Philly is expanding its NL East lead, while the Mets are clinging to the final NL wild-card spot after losing three straight contests. First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park, with the Philles as the -130 betting odds favorite.
We're eyeing the Over on 8 runs in this game as part of our MLB picks, though the Phillies' offense is set to do much of the work there with Ranger Suarez's effectiveness key to our player prop.
⚾ Mets vs. Phillies prediction
MLB odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Phillies (-130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Phillies -1.5 (+165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Mets vs. Phillies preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 8 runs (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Suarez is well-positioned to shine tonight, which we'll dive into more in a moment. He may still allow a couple of runs to contribute to this Over hitting, but we're primarily leaning on the Phillies' offense teeing off on Sean Manaea as the team continues to advance up the World Series odds.
That's been a frequent sight, especially across the lefty's last six starts when he's been consistently roasted while putting up a 7.81 ERA. He still racks up strikeouts and keeps walks low, but Manaea leans exceedingly hard on his mediocre heater, which has resulted in balls soaring quickly the other way.
He throws his four-seamer an overwhelming 61.4% of the time, despite a 91.6 mph average velocity that sits in just the 14th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Opponents are slugging .500 against that pitch, and it's been a major factor in his HR/9 being at 1.6 (league average is 1.2).
So it's not difficult to envision a Phillies offense that sits seventh in OPS doing much of the lifting to cash this Over. If that happens, a $10 bet through these -110 odds at Caesars would translate to a profit of $9.09 on an implied probability of 52.38%.
Our Gabe Henderson also thinks Kyle Schwarber will do his part to get us Over this number, as outlined in his best home run predictions today.
💰 Best Mets vs. Phillies player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 hits allowed (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Suarez is lethal on lefties. Yes, that's unsurprising since he's a top-tier southpaw, but the hurler has been especially effective against same-sided batters this year while allowing a minuscule batting average of .202, far lower than his .258 against righties.
He does that while leaning heavily on a vicious sinker that lefties are batting only .208 against, with an average exit velocity of only 84.6 mph. Being able to silence the power of the Mets' many slugging lefties is key, a group that includes Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo, Cedric Mullins, and the switch-hitting Francisco Lindor.
Suarez's success isn't limited to just lefties, though. He enters tonight with a shining 2.89 ERA achieved largely through suffocating hard contact, as his 30.1% hard-hit rate allowed rests in the top 1% league-wide.
A $10 bet on him to keep the Mets' hit count below 5.5 during his time in the game would lead to an $8.70 profit on these -115 betting odds from Caesars, which come with a 53.49% implied probability
📊 Mets vs. Phillies odds: Sept. 9
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Mets vs. Phillies betting odds analysis
The Phillies have stayed relatively steady so far as the -130 moneyline favorite, though they did briefly shorten a touch to -135 early this morning. Meanwhile, the total opened at 8.5 before quickly moving to 8 across the shops offering the best sportsbook promos.
Bettors are narrowly favoring the Over, as it's getting 54% of the action. The Phillies are also drawing 64% of the attention on the moneyline.
🔢 Mets vs. Phillies stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Mets (76-68) | Statistic (per game) | Phillies (84-60) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.75 | Runs | 4.74 |
| 8.41 | Hits | 8.78 |
| .250 | AVG | .258 |
| .429 | SLG | .425 |
| .753 | OPS | .758 |
| 3.91 | ERA | 3.79 |
| 8.8 | K/9 | 8.9 |
| 3.6 | BB/9 | 2.8 |
| 0.9 | HR/9 | 1.1 |
🚑 Mets vs. Phillies injuries
📺 Mets vs. Phillies game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 9
- First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- How to watch: Local TV
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❓ Mets vs. Phillies FAQs
Who is favored to win Mets vs. Phillies?
The Phillies are the -130 moneyline favorite at our best sports betting sites, while the Mets are listed at +110.
What is the run line for Mets vs. Phillies?
The Phillies are favored at -1.5 while getting betting odds of +165, and the Mets are at +1.5 with -189 betting odds.
What is the Over/Under for Mets vs. Phillies?
The total is set at 8 through the best sports betting apps ahead of the Mets vs. Phillies divisional clash.
What are the best bets for Mets vs. Phillies?
My best bets prior to Mets vs. Phillies tonight are Over 8 runs and Ranger Suarez holding New York to Under 5.5 hits while he's in the game.
When is the Mets vs. Phillies game?
The Mets vs. Phillies game gets underway at 6:45 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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