Heisman Trophy Odds 2025: Manning vs. Mateer Emerging Ahead of Red River Rivalry
Two weeks into the college football season and there's no clear Heisman Trophy odds favorite, nor a clear top tier of contenders. This is shaping up to be one of the most wide-open races in recent memory.
Though LSU's Garrett Nussmeier (+850) separated himself as the leader of the pack following a Week 1 that saw Arch Manning and Cade Klubnik play disastrously, Week 2 brought him back down to earth.
Meanwhile, Manning (+1400) got back in the race, albeit against a struggling Group of Five school, while his Red River Rivalry counterpart, Oklahoma's John Mateer (+1000), now looks like the best player to target for your Heisman college football picks.
π Live Heisman Trophy odds 2025
The latest Heisman Trophy odds; college football odds update in real time:
π Week 2 Heisman Trophy odds movement
- LSU's Garrett Nussmeier remains the favorite but saw his odds lengthen from +700 to +900 following a lackluster win over Louisiana Tech
- Despite playing an FCS opponent in Week 2 (Bethune-Cookman), Miami's Carson Beck remains the second-favorite ahead of SEC QBs like Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton
- Oklahoma's John Mateer didn't see his odds move following the Sooners' Week 2 win over Michigan - they remain at +1400
- After a historic blowout against Oklahoma State, Oregon's Dante Moore is one of the biggest Heisman risers, with his odds shortening from +2200 to +1600
- The Palmetto State took some blows to its Heisman candidates' odds following Cade Klubnik's ugly performance in Clemson's win over Troy and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers putting up mediocre numbers against an FCS team (South Carolina State)
π₯ Red River Heisman race: Manning vs. Mateer emerging as top contenders
π Arch Manning's Week 2 bounce-back
Manning's Week 2 got off to an iffy start against a San Jose State defense that's ranked No. 105 in SP+. However, he eventually settled in and finished the game with four touchdown passes, all of which came in the first half, to go with 295 passing yards and a fifth score on the ground. So you'd think five total touchdowns for the preseason Heisman Trophy odds favorite would vault him up the board, but his odds didn't see much movement.
Part of the problem is how bad he looked in Week 1 against Ohio State, and the other piece is that the Spartans are the type of team he's supposed to put up video game numbers against. It doesn't help that many of his throws were to receivers with defenders multiple yards behind them - like on Parker Livingstone's 83-yard touchdown - and he still tacked up three turnover-worthy plays to go with the three big-time throws he was credited with against San Jose State.
With that said, he sits third in the country in big-time throws (7) and second in big-time throw rate (11.5%). His aggressive style and the fact that he plays for a college football championship odds contender should keep him in the Heisman race all season, and it doesn't hurt that his last name helps with the narrative side of this award.
Although I'd still steer clear of betting on Peyton and Eli's nephew, especially with a $10 winning bet paying just a $160 profit on a player who looked lost against Ohio State, he'll have every opportunity to climb the oddsboard against a loaded SEC schedule. The Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma on Oct. 11 could make or break his case.
π ΎοΈ John Mateerβs Michigan mincing
On the other side of the Red River Rivalry, it looks like Brent Venables may have found his saving grace in the form of Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. The Washington State transplants have lived up to the hype in Norman and pulled off a decisive win in what was supposed to be the best game of Week 2.
Instead, the Sooners never trailed Michigan, further proving they're ready to compete with the SEC teams atop the College Football Playoff odds. That was thanks to Mateer, who not only made numerous jaw-dropping plays as a passer but was a bell cow on the ground for Oklahoma, finishing with 74 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries.
Mateer dazzled throughout the game, making plays out of structure and throws off-platform, which frequently led to reminders that he grew up playing baseball. The former three-star recruit finished with three big-time throws, an adjusted completion rate of 73.3%, two forced missed tackles, and 33 rushing yards after contact against a Michigan defense that was No. 1 in SP+.
That's how you bolster your Heisman case ... but despite being the only premier QB to have a Heisman-level performance against a premier team in Week 2, Mateer's odds didn't budge. The Sooners play a schedule that includes closing the season with six straight teams that are in CFP contention.
While that could be a reason to avoid betting on Mateer, I think the +1400 odds are worthwhile based on how much Oklahoma is relying on their transfer QB to carry the load. The numbers should be there by season's end for Mateer to bring Oklahoma its third Heisman-winning transfer since 2017.
π Heisman Trophy odds favorite after Week 2
π― Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (+700)
Two weeks into the season, and the three QBs who have had Heisman-level performances against marquee teams are Mateer against Michigan, Carson Beck against Notre Dame, and Nussmeier against Clemson. And while Nussmeier still leads the Heisman Trophy odds and the 2026 NFL Draft odds, he quietly had a less-than-inspiring showing in Week 2.
In a game in which LSU was a 36.5-point betting favorite at home, the Tigers beat Louisiana Tech 23-7. It's not as if the Bulldogs are some scrappy Group of Five team capable of making the CFP like South Florida. Tech is No. 99 in SP+, the type of team Nussmeier is supposed to cook like gumbo the way Manning did against San Jose State.
Nussmeier wasn't bad by any means, but he threw for just 237 yards and a score on 44 dropbacks while having a big-time throw rate of only 6.5% and accounting for two-turnover worthy plays.
In a Heisman race that has several QBs poised to put up numbers similar to that of a streamer beating up on a child in CFB26, Nussmeier could have a difficult time keeping up. Right now, Nussmeier looks like the best pro prospect of the bunch, but with a $10 bet paying a $90 profit on him winning the Heisman, at least until we see him putting up more eye-popping stats.
π Week 2 Heisman stock report
π Stock up
- Dante Moore, Oregon (+1600): Clearly, Moore took exception with Mike Gundy's comments about Dan Lanning and the Ducks, and he looks positioned to potentially be the third straight Oregon QB to become a Heisman finalist after throwing three touchdowns, with a 9.1% big-time throw rate, against Oklahoma State
- Jeremiah Smith (+1800)/Julian Sayin (+2200), Ohio State: While it was against Grambling State, there's no denying Smith and Sayin's greatness on Saturday, with the wide receiver putting up 119 yards and two touchdowns and the QB going 17-for-18 with four scores
- Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (+10000): After an up and down game against Auburn in Week 1, Robertson led a wild comeback to beat SMU in Week 2 behind 440 passing yards, four touchdowns, and five big-time throws ... he's a sleeper to watch
- Beau Pribula, Missouri (+10000): In the return of the Border War, Pribula was spectacular with 334 passing yards, three touchdowns, three big-time throws, and an adjusted completion rate of 83.8% against Kansas
π Stock down
- LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (+1800): After a strong Week 1, Sellers left a lot to be desired in a Week 2 win over South Carolina State as he threw for just 128 yards with one big-time throw, an adjusted completion rate of 68.8%, and forced zero missed tackles as a runner
- Cade Klubnik, Clemson (+2200): In went from bad to worse for Klubnik after the Week 1 loss to LSU, and while his numbers were solid against Troy, the Tigers needed a comeback to beat a team ranked No. 89 in SP+
- Sam Leavitt, Arizona State (+5000): The Sun Devils got pants'd by a Mississippi State team that didn't beat a Power Four team last year, and Leavitt was the biggest problem as he threw for just 82 yards with two interceptions and an adjusted completion rate of 50%
- DJ Lagway, Florida (+5000): Clearly one of the most talented QBs in the country, it doesn't look like Lagway is set to have the breakout year everyone expected after the Gators lost at home to South Florida on a walk-off field goal
- Bryce Underwood, Michigan (+8000): The No. 1 recruit in the country, Underwood was shaky in his first road start against Oklahoma, as should be expected from a true freshman, but it's clear he's still a year or two away from being a serious Heisman contender
β Heisman Trophy FAQs
Who is the Heisman Trophy favorite?
LSU's Garrett Nussmeier (+900) is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. His odds imply a 10% probability he'll win the award.
When is the Red River Rivalry?
The Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas, that will pit John Mateer against Arch Manning, is slated for Saturday, Oct. 11 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
What are Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds?
After holding preseason odds no longer than +700, Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds lengthened to +1800 following Week 1. They've since shortened to +1600, following Week 2, and imply a 5.88% probability he will win the award.
When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?
The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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